"Before the game is afoot, thou still let'st slip." - Northumberland, in Shakespeare's Henry IV

 Today is the 24th of August. Of course, 2020 being an election year, it's a pretty turbulent time in the United States. The Republican National Convention is today, and if it's anything like the Democrat National Convention, it's going to be "all virtual". 

Some things I took away from the DNC virtual huddle:

1. They don't have a plan. They REALLY don't have a plan other than to make this a referendum on the Trump Presidency. The whole game plan seems to be "Orange Man Bad". And I guess this is an "okay" strategy, but they might have made some critical errors (more on this in a bit).

2. They have a plan to defeat COVID-19... but they don't want to share it with anyone until Biden (presumably) gets elected. This seems a bit like "we're holding our plan hostage unless you vote for us". If you had a plan, and if you know how to beat this thing, then the lives we will lose between now and the (presumed) implementation of your plan are on your hands? That seems like a pretty silly gamble. 

3. "I'm gonna make sure rich people pay a lot of taxes". Again, that's pretty silly, because even if you snatched up all the combined wealth of every rich American (and you could only do it once), you aren't going to make a dent in the hole we've dug ourselves. And then what? 

4. "We want to defund the police and it's going to make lives for minorities better". This one is the most dangerous, and it's a big reason why I can never be a Democrat. If they are going to turn their backs on the police departments that put themselves on the line every single day, and they have consistently tried to either slander or gut the budgets of he US Military, then at what point will they turn their backs on everyone else? 

So now to the critical mistakes they made: Biden is going to get a slight bump in the polls. Most candidates do after their conventions. But the DNC scheduled theirs before the RNC, and that means their "bump" will soon disappear and the President will be able to capitalize on his. Second: they showed all their cards, and we're still on the Turn (a Texas Hold-Em reference). Orange Man Bad isn't a particularly effective strategy against a President with a demonstrated economic record and a clear and concise policy platform. Finally, the DNC has signaled a clear and abrupt shift to the Left. And while it's a clear nod to the Progressive Wing of the party, it's not exactly going to attract many swing voters (of which I am still convinced are a myth). Meanwhile, Trump's base is going to look at the recovery the Dow Jones Industrial Average has made since March, look at their October 401K statements, and pull the lever for Trump. 

Look, I get the fawning over Biden's acceptance speech. He set a relatively low bar for success considering his frequent gaffes and laughable responses in the past. He tried to be inspirational  and Reaganesque with his speech on Darkness and Light. But Biden is no Ronald Reagan.